🛝 College Is Back. Just Not the Way You Remember.

Welcome to Playground Post, a bi-weekly newsletter that keeps education innovators ahead of what's next.

This week's reality check: College enrollment just surpassed prepandemic levels, but the growth is coming in an unexpected way. Meanwhile, the SAT has pulled so far ahead of the ACT that some worry about what happens if there's only one test left standing. And student mental health keeps declining - not because schools don't know what works, but because they can't build the infrastructure to deliver it.

💎 Data Gem

71% of students agree that high school grades no longer accurately reflect performance because students can use AI to cheat, according to a new ACT survey.

Enrollment Growth Is Coming From Unexpected Places

College enrollment in the U.S. continued to rise last fall, surpassing prepandemic levels.

Total enrollment reached 19.4 million students, growing 1.0% compared with fall 2024, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

"Higher education has stabilized and is growing again," says Matthew Holsapple, senior director of research at the center.

But the growth is uneven. 

Enrollment at private four-year colleges is down. Fewer people are getting master's degrees. The gains are coming from public universities and community colleges, where short-term credentials tied to the workforce grew by 28% compared with a year ago.

"We're continuing to see students shifting out of some of the more traditional pathways into these shorter-term, more flexible, perhaps more job- and career-oriented fields," Holsapple explains.

Economic uncertainty is also a factor. 

When job prospects feel shaky, people return to college, especially community college. It's easier to test the waters at a local community college than it is to go through the steps of enrolling in a four-year program, especially if a student doesn't really know what they want to do.

One notable shift: a big decline in students studying computer science. The drop in both graduate and undergraduate programs came after years of steady expansion.

"Students are seeing the same trends that we all are seeing," Holsapple says. "They see the same news reports of layoffs in the tech field. They see the rise of AI like we do."

International graduate enrollment also dropped by about 10,000 students after several years of 50% growth. 

The downturn reflects federal policies that disrupted the visa process and billions in canceled research funding.

For innovators, the 28% growth in short-term credentials is a big signal. Students want faster, cheaper pathways to jobs. Institutions offering flexible, workforce-aligned programs are growing while traditional models stagnate. 

There's demand for tools that help community colleges scale credential programs and connect them directly to employer needs.

The SAT Is Winning. What Happens If the ACT Disappears?

The SAT has become the dominant standardized test for U.S. high schoolers applying to college.

Among the class of 2025, 45% more students took the SAT than the ACT. About 47% of graduates took the SAT, compared to 36% who took the ACT.

A decade ago, the ACT was more popular. 

The SAT edged past it in 2018 after a significant redesign and has since widened its lead.

As it attempts to claw back market share, the ACT has made changes. It shortened the core test by 50 minutes to 2 hours and 5 minutes - nine minutes less than the SAT. It expanded electronic versions and made the science section optional.

The ACT also went through an ownership change. The nonprofit that long administered the test sold its testing operations in 2024 to Nexus Capital Management, a private equity firm. 

The sale came after ACT reported more than $113 million in losses from 2019 to 2022.

Some advocates raised concerns.

"Private equity's core obligation is not to students, families, or educators, it's to investors seeking maximum return," said Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers. "That creates a dangerous misalignment."

Experts warned that the new owner could ultimately get rid of the ACT if it doesn't prove profitable - leaving no competition in the market. Without competition, the College Board could raise prices and be less responsive to concerns.

The shift matters because more colleges are requiring tests again. 

Princeton announced plans to drop its test-optional policy in October. Columbia is now the only Ivy that doesn't require scores. A majority of students who filed Common Applications by January 1 included test scores.

State contracts also drive adoption. Some states require all students to take one specific test. The ACT recently contracted with South Dakota and Illinois, while Kentucky switched to the SAT.

For innovators, the market concentration creates both risk and opportunity. If the ACT struggles, test prep companies face a simpler landscape but also a potential monopoly that could squeeze margins. The state-level contracting dynamic suggests opportunity for products that help states evaluate which test better serves their students. 

And the return of test requirements means demand for prep tools isn't going away.

Student Mental Health Keeps Declining. Schools Know What Works But Can't Deliver It.

Student mental health continues to worsen.

More than half of mental health providers - 57% - report a decline in the past year, up from 46% in 2024. 

Only 4% saw any improvement.

That's according to a survey of over 400 school administrators, teachers, and mental health providers.

The findings echo last year's report. 

Despite growing student need, 52% of public schools report they cannot effectively provide mental health services to all students who need them. Only 12% described continuity of care as consistent and well-coordinated.

Teachers are the least confident group. 28% expressed low confidence in their schools' ability to support student mental health.

"Schools know what works. It's consistent identification and intervention, caregiver engagement, and staff development," said Brandy Samuell, Director of Mental Health at eLuma. "But the system of support must evolve to make those solutions sustainable."

The gap isn't knowledge. It's infrastructure.

"The system keeps asking more from the people it depends on most," said Andy Myers, CEO of eLuma. "If we want to change the trajectory for students, we have to design systems that are flexible, human, and built for the long haul. We're not lacking insight - we're lacking infrastructure."

Schools don't need more evidence that mental health is a crisis. They need systems that make proven approaches - screening, caregiver engagement, staff training - actually implementable at scale. 

Solutions that reduce burden on overstretched staff while maintaining quality of care address the real bottleneck.

⚡️More Quick Hits

This week in education:

• • Texas families can soon access education savings accounts - State launches ESA program with details on how the application process works

  • Hochul budget proposes school funding boost and mayoral control extension - New York governor's proposal includes 2-Care childcare initiative

  • Teacher supply growing but turnover persists - MSU report finds more teachers entering the profession, but retention remains a challenge

  • Texas governor launches early childhood task force - Abbott creates working group focused on education and care for young children

To stay up-to-date on all things education innovation, visit us at playgroundpost.com.