🛝 The 4 Biggest Education Themes for 2026

Welcome to Playground Post, a bi-weekly newsletter that keeps education innovators ahead of what's next.

Happy New Year! This week we read over 100 predictions from education leaders, investors, and researchers across the sector and identified four major themes that kept showing up for 2026.

AI tutoring is finally crossing from promise to practice. Traditional assessments are giving way to more meaningful measures. Teachers are finding their work becoming more valuable rather than obsolete. And families are reshaping the entire education landscape faster than most anticipated. 

Here's what matters for education innovators in 2026.

💎 Data Gem

Teacher AI adoption grew 6x between 2023 and 2025, with nearly 80% of educators now confident using AI in class, representing an astonishing adoption rate in a field typically slow to embrace new tech.

The AI Tutor Finally Becomes the Hero Story

After years of being education's perpetual "next big thing," AI tutoring appears ready to actually deliver in 2026.

Sofia Fenichell, CEO of Study Hall AI, puts it directly: "I think 2026 is the year the AI tutor becomes the hero story." 

Thanks to multimodal interactions, lower costs, and better data, high-quality tutoring will be accessible at scale in ways that were never possible before.

The underlying challenge has always been straightforward. 

Tutoring produces significant learning gains, but human tutors are expensive and scarce, which means most students (especially those in under-resourced schools) never get access to one-on-one support.

AI is positioned to change that fundamental equation. 

Dan Carroll, co-founder of Clever, claims that the goal isn't replacing teachers but rather reaching students who otherwise get no help. AI can provide consistent support when humans aren't available.

The evidence is starting to back this up - education researcher Sunil Gunderia points to studies showing AI-driven tutors now match the effectiveness of human tutors, proving that quality tutoring can finally scale without replacing people. 

The shift toward practical application is already visible. Kris Astle, education expert at SMART Technologies, predicts in eSchool News that districts will now prioritize solutions that measurably improve student outcomes rather than just offering cool features.

For education innovators, this represents a transition from experimentation to accountability. The AI tutoring companies that demonstrate real learning gains will define this category, while districts increasingly demand proof over promises.

Goodbye Bubble Tests. Hello Assessment Revolution

AI didn't break traditional assessment so much as it made existing problems impossible to ignore.

Ben Kornell, CEO of Art of Problem Solving, argues in EdTech Insiders that "the five-paragraph essay is now unsustainable as a default assessment." 

When AI can generate competent essays in seconds, schools need to rethink what they're actually measuring. 

Jacob Kantor, a K-12 innovation leader, frames the deeper issue this way: our tools for measuring understanding don't match the kinds of learning experiences we say we value.

The response is already taking shape across multiple fronts. 

Some see movement toward oral exams and dynamic demonstrations of critical thinking, especially internationally. Others support a rise in student portfolios and client-based projects because a single test score can't tell the full story of a learner anymore.

This shift extends beyond thought leadership into actual policy. 

New York State is replacing its Regents exit exams with a holistic graduate profile, while Massachusetts lawmakers are working to eliminate state tests as a graduation requirement. According to EdWeek Market Brief, several states are now defining "Portrait of a Graduate" competencies and piloting performance-based metrics.

The business world is pulling in the same direction. 

Tyton Partners reports that 65% of employers now prioritize skills-based hiring, and undergraduate certificate earners grew by a record 11% year-over-year. Thousands of districts are reconsidering their graduate profiles in light of AI, with skills like curiosity, creativity, and critical thinking being taken much more seriously as essential outcomes.

For edtech companies, this opens opportunities for assessment tools that track creativity, collaboration, and growth over time rather than just right-or-wrong answers. The companies that figure out how to measure durable skills authentically will likely own the next generation of assessment.

Teachers Become More Valuable in 2026

As technology handles more routine tasks, the uniquely human parts of teaching are becoming the focal point rather than an afterthought.

In the age of AI, human connection is becoming a scarce resource. Coaching, care, and judgment don't disappear in an AI world but rather become the point of education itself.

When AI can handle grading, generate practice problems, and deliver content, what remains for teachers is everything that matters most: mentorship, relationship-building, facilitating discussions, fostering creativity, and providing the emotional support that no algorithm can replicate. 

Juliette Reid, Director of Market Research at Reading Horizons, observes that the best uses of AI are those that create space for better teaching rather than less of it.

Forward-thinking schools will use AI to automate the mundane so teachers can focus on what only humans can do: connect, inspire, and challenge students to think critically and create boldly.

District priorities are reflecting this shift. 

Logitech research finds that 81% of K-12 IT leaders now say student engagement (not test scores) is their primary measure of technology success, signaling that schools increasingly value the human elements that drive connection and motivation.

Bernard Marr, argues that human-centric skills like interpersonal relationships, leadership, empathy, collaboration, and creativity become critical in the AI age. "The human touch will continue to be essential in every profession". 

Experts agree that the most successful educators will be coaches first and teachers second, with technology handling curriculum planning so teachers can focus 100% of their energy on motivation, pedagogy, and building confidence.

For the education market, this suggests growing demand for tools that amplify human connection rather than replace it. Products that free up teacher time for one-on-one interactions, facilitate meaningful discussions, or help educators build stronger relationships with students may prove more durable than those that simply automate instruction.

School Choice Hits Escape Velocity

The traditional pipeline that moved students from kindergarten through high school graduation is evolving.

Jennifer Carolan, General Partner at Reach Capital, calls this "one of the biggest structural shifts" happening in education. 

Public education dollars are moving directly into families' hands via universal ESA programs, and parents are using that money to create or choose micro-schools (schools of fewer than 30 students) at a rate happening much faster than people realize.

The data supports this as well. According to EdWeek Market Brief's survey of 400 K-12 industry insiders, 60% of edtech companies are now eyeing private schools that accept vouchers as a growth market. Nearly half are looking at the homeschooling sector, and 29% are targeting ESA-funded learners directly.

A new federal tax credit for private school contributions signals national momentum, while multiple states including Arizona, West Virginia, and Florida now offer universal or near-universal ESA programs.

Technology is enabling this fragmentation in practical ways. 

AI and online platforms make small, distributed school models viable at scale. A tiny micro-school can now access top-notch curriculum or tutoring via tech that previously only large districts could afford.

Meanwhile, attitudes toward traditional pathways continue shifting. 

Polling shows two-thirds of U.S. registered voters now believe a college degree isn't worth the cost, representing a dramatic reversal from a decade ago.

For education entrepreneurs, this creates a fundamentally different market landscape. The customer is increasingly the family rather than the district, which means products need to work for small-scale operators, homeschool parents, and micro-school founders (not just procurement departments). The companies that figure out how to serve this fragmented, parent-driven ecosystem will find a rapidly growing market.

⚡️More Quick Hits

More education predictions:

• EdTech consolidation wave expected — 65% of K-12 industry insiders expect more M&A activity in 2026, with 88% saying competition for school budgets will intensify as companies fight over fewer dollars

• Big Tech embedding education into core platforms — Google, Microsoft, and others are building learning features directly into their ecosystems rather than acquiring edtech companies, potentially reshaping the landscape

• Curriculum pivoting to "durable skills" — Thousands of districts are reconsidering graduate profiles to emphasize creativity, critical thinking, and AI literacy as automation handles routine tasks

• Learning and earning collapse together — Two-thirds of U.S. voters now believe a college degree isn't worth the cost, driving growth in career-aligned learning and alternative credentials

• AI trust becomes non-negotiable — Schools demand the same accuracy standards for AI as textbooks, with some districts potentially opting for "AI-free" zones as a countertrend

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